Vail ==== Current Keywords: HIGH, MODERATE, avalanche danger, faceted, human triggered avalanches, natural, naturally, powder , settle, slab, slabs, snowpit, start zone, wind drifts, Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone Forecast Issued on 1/11/2008 8:20:21 AM Forecaster: Brad Sawtell Weather Synopsis There is a nice series of clouds plowing into the northern mountains Friday afternoon. Snowfall will fade in and out of the Northern and Central Mountains tonight, with most of the accumulation before midnight. Tomorrow the snow turns to scattered showers, sticking around longest over the Divide and Steamboat. Winds will ease tomorrow. Clouds are thickening over the San Juans this afternoon as upstream moisture moves in. The Northern San Juan zone will see pulses of snow continue overnight, and be mostly over by dawn tomorrow. On Sunday, another shortwave moves in with scattered light snow. Sunday night the flow turns northerly as a ridge folds over. Clearing and cold arctic air comes in on the northerly flow. Avoiding avalanches is a matter of choosing the right place for the current conditions. With great care, you can get into the backcountry even on days with high danger. However, daily for the last twelve days we have reported human triggered avalanches, close calls, and one fatality. It feels like some folks are out there swinging baseball bats at the dragon's tail. The snowpack is variable, complicated, and still producing large avalanches in many zones. Instead of stomping around with your bat, tiptoeing around the dragon with a q-tip might be a much better approach. Weather Friday Night Saturday Saturday Night Temperature(°F) 12-17 1-6 5-10 Wind Speed(mph) 15-25 G40 15-25 10-20 Wind Direction W WNW WNW Sky Cover Overcast Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Snow(in) 7-10 1-4 0-2 Snowpack Discussion Reports of more avalanche activity continues to stream in. Thank you to everyone who sends us reports as they really help us tremendously! Reports indicate both natural and human triggered slides. A few of the reoccuring themes from the reports include: only the top 12"-18" of soft slab releases noted on slides below treeline, and that slides are stepping down to deeper instabilities at and above treeline. Some are eventually taking the entire snowpack with them, running on the ground. Most of the activity is occurring on east through south through south west aspects, but a few have occurred on north east aspects too. The largest slide reported occured early yesterday morning located to the southwest of Copper Mountain, on Jacque Ridge. It was a natural slide - east aspect, 12,100' on a slope angle in the low 30's. A slope described as an infrequent producer. The Vail-Summit zone is complicated right now with a snowpack varying in depth over different parts of the zone. I have four concerns at the moment. First, the number of naturally occuring slides on east - south and west aspects well below treeline. Many of these have occured in steep drainages or gullies where it is easy to let your guard down because you are not thinking "avalanche" yet. The second is concern is the now buried hard slab found at and above treeline on the entire eastern half of the compass. Triggering a hard slab avalanche from below the traditional start zone will remain possible to probable. The third is the widespread consistently inconsistent deep slab instability. Faceted grains near the ground have been growing larger and weaker every day. Lastly, I am concerned with the general feeling of powder fever. If you look at the "Indicators of Avalanche Stability", you can easily pick out 6 of the 7 "ALP TRUTh's": Avalanches, wind Loading, avalanche Path, terrain Trap, danger Rating and Unstable snow. If you would like to read the article go to http://www.snowpit.com/ and click on the "articles" tab. As the forecasted new snow and moderate to strong winds become real, travelling in the backcountry will require a solid knowledge base of snowpack assessment, terrain evaluation and route finding as well as smart travel practices. New snow as of this morning vary throughout the zone, ranging from 2-10 inches. Visibility at times today may be poor, so know where you are, avoid steep slopes and wait for the new snow to settle. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger in the Vail Summit Zone is HIGH on east, southeast, and south aspects near and above treeline. The danger is CONSIDERABE on north and northeast aspects. New snow and strong winds have created fresh wind drifts and slabs. On west and northwest aspects all elevations the danger is MODERATE.