Vail and Summit County
=======================

Current Keywords: CONSIDERABLE,  LOW, MODERATE, cold front, cornice, crusts,  front, 
natural avalanche,  settling, slabs, starting zones, wind loaded, windloaded, windslabs, 

   Mountain Weather and Avalanche Forecast for the Vail and Summit County Zone
                  Forecast Issued on 4/4/2008 4:03:52 PM
                         Forecaster: Spencer Logan

   Weather Synopsis

   Our next storm is out over the Great Basin Friday
   afternoon. A low tracking across Montana will drag clouds into Colorado
   tonight. Skies will be mostly cloudy by Saturday morning. Scattered
   light snow will follow a cold front spreading from the northern
   mountains in the morning south to most mountains by Saturday evening.
   Like Wednesday/Thursday, this looks like another unimpressive few
   inches of snow. The Aspen zone, Vail area, and Uncompahgre Gorge could
   do the best, with 3-6 inches of snow. Temperatures will drop behind the
   front. Upper level flow stays zonal into next week. There are several
   shortwave disturbances in the flow, so the weather will be unsettled.
   It is spring, and time for some big upslopes. The first may arrive
   mid-week. Of course, it could suffer from performance anxiety if we
   scrutinize it too closely.

   Weather

                    Friday Night
                                    Saturday
                                               Saturday Night
   Temperature(°F)     15-20         30-35         5-10
   Wind Speed(mph)     15-25         20-30         20-30
   Wind Direction       WSW           WSW            W
      Sky Cover    Partly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy
      Snow(in)           0            1-4           0-3
   
Snowpack Discussion

   Friday was an active day for avalanches. Lots of little loose
   avalanches and shallow slabs ran on east, southeast, and south aspects
   above treeline. Thursday night a shift to north and northwest winds
   formed shallow slabs on top of slick crusts. The slides fractured high
   in the starting zones or just under ridgelines. One observer watched a
   natural avalanche run in Tractor Bowl, west of Hoosier Pass, on his
   morning commute. It was about 300 feet wide, the largest slide reported
   today. Just east of Arapahoe Basin (in the Front Range Zone), a
   backcountry traveler was caught in an avalanche just before noon. The
   cornice she was standing on broke under her, and then triggered an
   avalanche that buried her with just a hand above the snow surface. She
   was rescued and evacuated for medical care. We will add more details
   when we get them.

   Thicker, older windslabs are on north, northeast, and east aspects
   above treeline. They are settling in, but you can still find areas with
   reactive slabs. Steep, convex slopes are the most likely place to
   trigger these older slabs.

   Cooler temperatures and cloudy skies will reduce the potential for wet
   avalanches. Unfortunately, the crusts near and below treeline will not
   soften much. At low elevations, steer clear of slopes where you punch
   deeply into cohesionless snow.

Avalanche Danger

   There are pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger on very steep,
   windloaded north, northeast, east, southeast, and south aspects above
   treeline. You need to avoid steep, wind loaded slopes where fresh slabs
   have built up to 2-3' deep. On other aspects near and above
   treeline the danger is MODERATE. Below treeline the danger is LOW.