900 AM PST TUE JAN 1 2008 && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST- Considerable avalanche danger above about 4000 feet and moderate below Tuesday and Wednesday. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS Strong west winds and heavy snow continued through the weekend. New snow for the 24 hours ending Monday morning ranged from about 6-18 inches at sites near and west of the crest. This brought snowfall totals for the second half of December to 10-15 feet at sites near and west of the crest! Some large natural avalanches and signs of instability were seen over the weekend while skiers on lower angle sheltered slopes reported deep powder conditions. A break in the active weather pattern was seen Monday. However new storm cycle soft slab and wind slab conditions were still present on Monday on lee slopes. The ski patrol at Alpental reported a couple of deep natural slab avalanches on northeast slopes at about 5000 feet above the back country high traverse on Monday. The Crystal Mountain ski patrol reported several skier triggered 2-3 foot slab releases on north to southeast slopes at about 6700-6800 feet in their back country areas. Bed surfaces for these avalanches are reported to be the crust from a day or so before Christmas. The break in the weather Monday also allowed for several inches of snowpack consolidation and stabilizing. A skier on the FOAC web site for near Stevens Pass on Monday reported unconsolidated powder conditions on shaded slopes and no avalanches. Sun exposed slopes developed a surface sun crust. So some deep powder snow conditions should still be found on shaded slopes. Note that crust layers from about Christmas and early December are still reported deeper in the snow pack. Triggered avalanches in recent snow may still step to these layers. This is most likely at higher elevations on slopes that have previously avalanched or in response to heavier triggers such as snowmobiles. Remember that terrain features such as tree wells can be dangerous if you fall in and no one is available to help you out. So always travel with at least a nearby partner who can assist if necessary. TUESDAY Increasing southeast ridge and mountain top winds are expected Tuesday with a warming trend. This is likely to transport recent snow and build new potential denser surface wind slab layers on new lee slopes. This should especially be on west to north aspects near and west of the Cascade crest but could occur on other aspects or on cross loaded slopes. Do not be lulled by the fair weather seen Monday into thinking that the avalanche danger at higher elevations is over. We recommend caution and safe travel routes on Tuesday and Tuesday night especially in areas with new wind transported snow at higher elevations. WEDNESDAY A front should cross the Olympics Wednesday early morning and the Cascades late morning. This should be accompanied by a change to southwest winds at crest levels, moderate to heavy snow mainly in the Olympics and volcanic peaks, less snow in the Cascade passes and lowering snow levels. This may build some new potential storm cycle wind or soft slab layers on north to east facing lee slopes at higher elevations. Note that the weather Tuesday and Wednesday may create slab layers on a variety or more than the usual aspects. So be sure to pay attention to snow conditions on Wednesday. We continue to recommend caution and safe travel routes on Wednesday at higher elevations. This would be near lee slopes with new potential soft or wind slab layers or near slopes with wind transported snow from Tuesday. With a little luck more stable powder snow should continue to be found on sheltered and shaded slopes. Decreasing wind and decreasing light snow showers should be seen Wednesday night. This should lead to some stabilizing and a slightly decrease in the avalanche danger. &&