9 AM PST FRI JAN 04 2008...AMD && ZONE AVALANCHE FORECASTS * OLYMPICS, WASHINGTON CASCADES NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST- Considerable avalanche danger above 4000 feet and moderate below increasing Friday and becoming high above 5 to 6000 feet and considerable below, with greatest danger on northwest through northeast exposures near higher ridges and west facing slopes near the passes. Little change in the danger expected Friday night and Saturday with greatest danger shifting onto northeast and east exposures. * SUNDAY OUTLOOK- Gradually decreasing danger expected Sunday, becoming considerable above 4 to 5000 feet and moderate below later Sunday afternoon. Slightly increasing danger Sunday night, mainly south. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS In most areas, the upper part of the deepening Northwest snowpack consists of small to moderate amounts of new slightly heavier and higher density snow from Thursday that were deposited over earlier wind slab and some generally weaker low density snow that were created in some areas on Wednesday. This is helping to maintain a considerable avalanche danger above 4 to 5000 feet, especially on northwest through northeast facing slopes receiving most recent wind transport. At lower elevations, more recent settlement is producing a slightly lower and moderate danger, although small wind slabs are still probable on steeper wind loaded terrain. The most recent new snow was also deposited over previous large amounts...ranging up to 3 to 6 feet...of slowly settling older snow received late last month that lies over the faceting Christmas crust. Finally, all of this snow lies over some 4 to 6 feet of snow sandwiched between the weakening Christmas Eve crust and the old faceted early December crust which exists relatively close to the ground. While slow settlement and gradual strengthening of the snowpack between the two crusts has slowly diminished the possibility for deeper slides reaching the old early December crust, some isolated natural slides reaching this crust were reported as recently as early this week, with fracture depths up to 8 to 12 feet. More frequent and slightly smaller natural slides releasing on the Christmas crust have also been reported, and this may have been the sliding surface for the 5 to 6 ft slab that resulted in the recent snowmobiler accident in the northern Washington Cascades. These deeper weak layers are typically most easily triggered by larger loads, such as snowmobilers or larger groups...hence such travelers should be extremely cautious in avalanche terrain. However, primary slide activity in most areas is much smaller, involving only the most recently deposited snow with mostly 6 to 18 inch fractures in wind loaded terrain. Of further interest to back country travelers are recent reports of relatively high quality powder in wind protected terrain, although this enjoyment requires careful route selection and good terrain management skills, as well as frequent updates as to slope stability and snow structure. DETAILED FORECASTS FRIDAY Increasing light to moderate snow should spread to most areas Friday morning, along with increasingly strong winds and a brief warming trend. Although moderate rain or snow should decrease and become more showery during the afternoon, moderate to strong winds should continue in most areas. This weather should produce generally increasing danger on Friday as new denser wind slabs are deposited over weaker snow layers and some recent wind slabs, with slabs up to 2 to 3 feet or more likely developing on wind loaded terrain, especially northwest through northeast facing slopes near higher ridges and west exposures near the Cascade passes. As a result of the increasing danger, back country travel is not recommended in steeper wind loaded avalanche terrain where deepening wind slabs should become increasingly likely. FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY...AMENDED... Moderate to occasionally heavy snow showers, lowering freezing levels and moderate to strong winds are expected Friday night and Saturday morning and mid-day before slowly decreasing Saturday afternoon. This should help maintain or slightly increase existing avalanche dangers as further and slightly larger wind slabs develop on lee slopes, with the greatest danger shifting onto northeast through southeast exposures at all elevations. It should also be noted that relatively smaller storm related slabs releasing within the most recently deposited snow may trigger isolated larger releases involving either some or all of the recent snow since late December. Hence travelers...whether they are skiing, snowboarding, snowmobiling, snowshoeing or climbing...are urged to avoid travel on steeper wind loaded terrain on Saturday and confine travel to tree covered slopes or more gentle terrain without steeper terrain above. Please be aware, stay focused and make it through this first week of 2008. SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT Decreasing showers and winds and low freezing levels are expected Saturday night and most of Sunday, before increasing light snow arrives Sunday night, primarily in the Mt Hood area and southern Washington Cascades. As a result of this weather, the avalanche danger should slowly decrease on Sunday in most areas as recent wind slabs begin to settle and partly stabilize. However, a slight danger increase is expected Sunday night in the south due to increased light to moderate snow and briefly increased winds which may redevelop some new slabs on a variety of exposures. &&