South Rockies Avalanche Forecast - December 27, 2008 at 4:00 PM Date/Time issued: Saturday, December 27, 2008 at 4:00 PM Valid until: Tuesday, December 30, 2008 at 6:00 PM Next Scheduled Update: Sunday, December 28, 2008 ---------- Fernie - Lizard Range ---------- Sunday Monday Tuesday Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE Below Treeline 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE 3 - CONSIDERABLE ---------- Elk Valley & Crowsnest Pass ---------- Sunday Monday Tuesday Alpine 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE Treeline 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE 3 - CONSIDERABLE Below Treeline 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE 2 - MODERATE Confidence: Poor. There is significant variation in this region. Primary Concerns: * Storm Snow: New storm snow with high winds could overload the weak snowpack. * Wind Slab: New snow with wind will create wind slab conditions, particularly on east and northeast aspects. Special Message: Mountain conditions, especially around Fernie and the Lizard ranges, have changed and we're now seeing avalanches starting to affect this region. Soft slabs are building at all elevations, and these will become more reactive to human-triggering, and bigger, over the coming days. People are keen to get out, and have time to do so over the holiday period, but don't let your enthusiasm, or that of your friends, carry you to places you'll regret later on. I expect unstable conditions will persist for longer than people expect-we could be entering an unusual and dangerous period for the next few weeks. Play safe out there and get into the habit of making consistent, cautious decisions. Travel Advisory Issued: Sat, Dec 27 Next Scheduled Update: Sun, Dec 28 Avalanches are starting to affect this region, so if your area has seen significant snowfall, now is time to stay away from avalanche terrain. Even in areas with less snow, the extreme winds have conspired to create touchy windslab conditions. I would recommend sticking to simple terrain, keeping slope angles low and avoiding steep open slopes, as well as drops and rolls-now just isn't the right time. Be especially careful at this time to avoid exposure to avalanche slopes from above, particularly when grouping up. Where snow amounts are less, there are still dangers to be aware of. The complicated snowpack contains buried windslab on a variety of aspects and elevations. This is sitting on a lower layer of weak facets/depth hoar. These instabilities could easily wake up with only a small amount of additional load. Avalanche Activity Issued: Sat, Dec 27 Next Scheduled Update: Sun, Dec 28 On Saturday, professionals triggered a size 3 slab avalanche while digging a snow profile. The slide was on an east aspect at 1700m and ran to ground. There have been several reports of soft slabs reacting to skier-triggering. These have been producing avalanches up to size 2 on southeast to northeast slopes at elevations around treeline. Snowpack Issued: Sat, Dec 27 Next Scheduled Update: Sun, Dec 28 The Fernie Alps have seen in excess of 50cm of new snow in the last few days. The problem is that slightly denser snow now overlies very soft snow, creating soft slab conditions, even in sheltered areas. In windier spots, windslab will be more prevalent. The lower snowpack is complicated, with hard windslab buried in a variety of exposed areas and bottomless facets in sheltered areas. In some places, there may still be remnants of the early season crusts. Weather Issued: Sat, Dec 27 Next Scheduled Update: Sun, Dec 28 Sunday: There is a chance for significant local snowfall amounts in upslope areas in the 10-20cm range, although most areas will be drier, with only flurries. Temperatures -5 to -10°C. Winds moderate to strong westerly at treeline. At present, Monday and Tuesday look drier, with a chance of flurries, temperatures holding around -5 to -10°C and winds continuing from the west or southwest. Due to difficult meteorological forecasting conditions, there is uncertainty in the timing and amount of new snowfall. Issued by: James Floyer