Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Aspen Issued 02/26/2010 7:14 AM by John Snook Highlights Reports of natural slides are slowing following the significant cycle following last weekend's storm cycle suggesting the avalanche danger is slowly easing. Sunny skies and cool temperatures on Friday will continue this trend. Fresh snow and recent winds have generated tender wind slabs on top of weak layers on a variety of aspects near and above treeline. These are the areas of greatest concern where smart terrain management is required. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Aspen zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects near and above treeline. Below treeline, the danger is MODERATE. Snow & Avalanche Discussion An inch or two of new snowfall reported from around the Aspen zone. A significant cycle of natural activity followed the storm cycle of earlier this week. At least 20 slides were reported to the office. It has been a couple days now since the last report of a natural avalanche suggesting that the avalanche danger is trending slowly downward. Wind speeds have eased during the past 24 hours, but snow transport continued above treeline onto a variety of aspects. These wind-affected areas are the primary concern. Tender wind slabs have developed on buried weak layers of crusts and facets. Observers are noting less wind effects below treeline and less signs of instability in these areas. But remember the weak foundation of basal facets persists in the Aspen snowpack. The weather for the next couple of days is forecast to be mostly sunny and this will not hurt the snowpack. Be most careful where fresh wind loading is creating new slab on buried weak layers. You will most likely find these areas above treeline on northeast through southeast to southwest aspects. If you find signs of instability such as recent avalanche activity, cracks that propagate, or whumpfing, then you need to avoid terrain steeper than 30 degrees in these areas. Weather Discussion A ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin starts to influence Colorado on Friday with sunny skies. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the cool side. Wind speeds will not be excessive, but could be strong enough to move snow well above treeline. The ridge axis crosses Colorado Saturday morning resulting in a clear night with light winds and cold valley temperatures. Winds back from northwest to southwest by midday Saturday. Temperatures warm about ten degrees on Saturday and scattered high clouds develop during the afternoon. A West Coast trough of low pressure moves on shore Saturday evening and progresses toward Colorado. A large area of low pressure moves across the state on Sunday. Winds are forecast to be light with this system meaning limited orographic lift. But dynamic lift should be sufficient to generate widespread snow for all mountain locations. Snowfall accumulations in the 4 to 12 inch range are possible by Monday morning with heavier amounts favoring the Southwest and Central Mountains. Light snow lingers through Monday on weak northerly flow. High pressure follows for mid-week.