Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Steamboat & Flat Tops Issued 03/07/2010 6:38 AM by Simon Trautman Highlights The new snow has settled quickly with warm temperatures and sunny skies. More snow is in the forecast, but most of the accumulation is expected late tonight, so the avalanche danger is not likely to rise before Monday. Winds slabs exist on North through East aspects at higher elevations, and human triggered avalanches are possible. The danger is Moderate today in the Steamboat Zone. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger is MODERATE. You may trigger windslabs, especially on north to east aspects. Persistent weak layers keep the possibility of deeper, larger avalanches in the picture, with northerly aspects the most suspect. Snow & Avalanche Discussion Storm totals from the Friday storm are close to, or just over a foot of snow. Winds were from the west to south and drifted lots of snow along exposed ridges immediately after the storm. Warm temperatures have contributed to fast settling of the new snow, and most solar aspects are probably capped with a new sun / melt crust. Today, the big issue will be windslabs that have formed in open, shady areas. There are still some faceted layers below these slabs, and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes. Weather Discussion A large, upper level closed low is moving eastward over San Diego. Yesterday's projected precipitation for the San Juan did not materialize last night...it looks like the expected shortwave ejected more to the west over Nevada and Utah. Mountain winds have picked up in the last 6 hours as the southern flow strengthens. Current model runs show snow beginning this afternoon in the Southern and Central Mountains, and intensifying through the middle of the night, with upwards of 1" of water possible by Monday morning. The Northern Mountains will see widespread showers tonight, but accumulations will be limited to a couple inches. Snow will continue through Monday evening. There may be a break on Tuesday as a weak ridge moves overhead, but there is another large trough moving onshore and the pattern looks unsettled into the end of the week.