Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Sawatch Range Issued 03/18/2010 7:03 AM by Brad Sawtell Highlights Today will be another warm day before the next storm system arrives from the north later this evening. Yesterday, temperatures were very warm above treeline. Today, expect the threat of wet slide activity on slopes near and below treeline. Deep slab instability is still the greater concern. Keep your fingers crossed for more snow and a good freeze. CONSIDERABLE danger is spreading into other elevation bands. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger for the Sawatch zone is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects near treeline. Above treeline, the danger is MODERATE. Pockets of CONSIDERABLE danger will enter the the danger rose on solar aspects below treeline as the snow surface warms. Be mindful of afternoon warming and the liklihood of wet loose avalanche activity on all steep solar aspects below treeline. We appreciate knowing what you see in the backcountry. You can submit observations here. Snow & Avalanche Discussion The Sawatch zone has seen some warm temperatures since Monday. The snowpack has settled quickly at the lower elevations. Winds have redistributed much of the snow received from the last storm at the higher elevations forming dense slabs, cross loaded ridgelines and thin snow coverage in other areas. Warming will again be an important thing to pay attention to today. Aspect and elevation should play an important role in your decision making process. Slab avalanche activity was reported from the Fremont Pass area on west aspects, near and above treeline, involving wind loaded areas. An avalanche cycle also occurred in the Monarch Pass area earlier in the week, involving near treeline slopes on Northeast and Northwest aspects. The Marshall Pass area has also seen some natural activity on North aspects, also near or below treeline elevations. The surface of the snowpack is changing quickly. Older, deeper snow layers are changing slowly. If one layer changes quicker than another layer, this can be too stressful for the layer interface. Although surface instabilities may be more common and visible, deep slab instability is still the number one concern. Water has percolated down from the surface on lower elevation solar aspects. The bottom line is that we are not out of the woods yet. Spring Break is here but the snowpack is far from being ready to call it spring. Sub surface snowpack temperatures continue to be cold. Don't let the feeling of spring fool you into thinking the snowpack is ready for your schedule. Be patient. Today, like the past few days, expect to see wet loose avalanche activity on steep solar aspect slopes. Avoid these lower elevation solar aspects later in the day. All slopes steeper than 34 degrees located slightly below to slightly above treeline should be treated as suspect. Think about the consequences of an avalanche before entering a slope and have an escape route planned. Until the temperatures drop when the cold front crosses over the state, wet snow avalanches will remain a concern. Weather Discussion A complex weather system is dropping southward from Canada today. This means our tables in the details section are not going to get all the info in so reading the text below for specifics will help see a pattern....of sorts...Might be a good idea to check out the afternoon weather update too...This weather system is a tough one. One more warm day, close to as warm as Wednesday when temperatures were above freezing at 14,000 ft in numerous locations. Increasing afternoon clouds and winds will help suppress a complete melt-down this afternoon. Next comes the hard part...The short wave trough slips into northern Colorado near sunset, Winds shift from WSW across the west slope to easterly on the east side of the Divide around 10 pm... getting east slope snowfalls underway. Winds along and just west of the divide are confused but eventually trend easterly, remaining more northerly further west. On Friday they trend easterly which makes it tough for snowfall accums west of the Divide. In the Central zones winds become more NW overnight, and upslope easterly winds get underway around mid-morning Friday. Further west winds are WNW but the atmosphere seems a little moisture starved. In the San Juan moisture looks to arrive around 3 AM with winds shifting from SW to NW overnight. This pattern favors the northern portion of the zone. These winds remain NW Friday except the Sangre's which switch to easterly mid-morning. All zones see high temperatures early Friday morning with colder air following for some chilly daytime highs. As winds become easterly they should increase along the Divide, Sawatch, Steamboat and the Sangre's. Models don't show anything big, but the downslope component could bring some 50 mph gusts at times.