Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Steamboat & Flat Tops 	
Issued: 01/21/2012 5:54 AM by Scott Toepfer
Avalanche Warning in Effect through 01/23/2012 12:00 PM

An avalanche warning is in effect for today. Natural and human triggered avalanches are very likely. 
Be very cautious near or below any slope over 30 degrees. You will be able to easily trigger 
avalanches on most aspects and elevations. Triggering avalanches from distances of 100 feet away or 
greater is likely. The largest avalanches will occur on slopes facing north through east to southeast 
near and above treeline. Widespread but smaller avalanches are likely on all other slopes.

Highlights

A strong winter storm is bearing down on the zone Saturday. Winds will be on the increase, as will 
snowfall. Snowfall looks to pick-up this afternoon with a period of heavier snowfall later this 
afternoon as a cold front barrels through the state.

Given the strength of the approaching storm there is a fairly good chance we will be upgrading to 
an avalanche warning by later today. We have issued an avalanche watch meaning backcountry users 
can expect to see an increasing avalanche danger with human triggered avalanches likely, some of 
which could be large

Avalanche Danger

The avalanche danger for the Steamboat zone is CONSIDERABLE (Level 3).

Snow & Avalanche Discussion

We have a potentially powerful storm just over the horizon. Wind speeds are increasing this morning, 
snow showers are spreading across the zone, and heavier snowfall is not far behind. When the heavier 
snow arrives mid-day it looks to start with a high water content meaning it will rapidly add weight 
to a weak foundation. As this storm ramps up expect a rapid increase in the avalanche danger. We 
could easily see some wide spread areas of HIGH danger by Saturday night.

Backcountry observations are trickling in, and these remark on a very noisy snowpack. Widespread 
cracking, rumbling collapses, and human triggered avalanches have all been mentioned in the few 
observations we've gotten. All this points to an equation that equals a dangerous snowpack.

Backcountry users should avoid steep terrain especially if there is any kind of a terrain trap below. 
The avalanche that killed the skier near Aspen on Wednesday had a vertical fall of only 30 to 40 feet. 
It was only 12 to 14 feet wide and less than a meter deep. We all know our snowpack has a rotten and 
weak base. We haven't seen a snowpack like this for a long time. This would be a good weekend to 
back off the big terrain.

Weather Discussion for 11,000ft 	Issued: 01/21/2012 12:55 PM by Scott Toepfer 	

Snowfall rolled into Telluride, Grand Mesa and Crested Butte around 10:30 to 10:45 this morning. 
Stronger winds are developing according to local zone observations, but not all areas are seeing 
these. The latest model run has decreased snowfall amounts for this afternoon and evening. The 
trough is showing signs of digging further south than models have indicated, which has been the 
pattern so far this winter. There is still ample moisture but the southwesterly flow looks to 
dominate more than west-southwest and west as I had originally thought.

A cold front moves into Colorado about sunset which will bring a period of intense snowfall with 
strong southwest and west winds. This makes the tables below a bit tricky to fill out for snowfall 
amounts. At this time the stronger snowfall period looks to run from around 4 pm until 9 or 10 pm.
Winds will ease a bit and back more northwest later Saturday night as the trough moves across with 
snowfall continuing over most of Colorado's mountains. Northwest winds increase in speed after 
midnight as a weak ridge builds to the west. This northwest flow will continue to fuel snowfall 
across the north and central zones as well as the north side of the San Juan Range into Sunday 
morning.

Sunday snowfall associated with the northwest flow will ease, as do winds, a bit, Most anything 
will seem better after Saturday afternoons expected winds. Temperatures will be much cooler on 
Sunday. Some areas may struggle to escape single digits.

The next storm looks to be arriving later on Monday.

Weather Forecast
Fields 				Saturday Night 	Sunday 			Sunday Night
Temperature (°F) 	5 to 10 		8 to 13 		4 to 9
Wind Speed (mph) 	17-22 G40s 		15 to 25 		13 to 23
Wind Direction 		WNW 			WNW 			W
Sky Cover 			OvercastOV 		DecreasingDC 	Mostly CloudyMC
Snow (in) 			5 to 8 			Tr to 2 		0 to 2