Backcountry Avalanche Forecast for Vail & Summit County Issued: 01/22/2012 7:48 AM by Brian Lazar Special Advisory Statement in Effect through 01/24/2012 12:00 PM Widespread dangerous avalanche conditions exist today. Triggering avalanches is likely on any snow-covered slope 30 degrees or steeper that did not slide during the natural cycle yesterday. The natural avalanche cycle has largely run it course, so I will drop the Avalanche Warning, but natural avalanches are still possible today. Triggering slides will be easy today, and some of them will be bigger than what we have seen so far this winter. Triggering avalanches remotely and from low angle or even flat terrain is likely. Be very wary near or below any avalanche terrain, and keep in mind that even small slides can bury and kill you. Twitter 23/01/2012 6:34 AM by Brian Lazar: Dangerous avalanche conditions today. Triggering slides is likely. Some will be biggest so far this year. Highlights Travel in the backcountry is not recommended today. 6 to 10 inches fell overnight and another 1 to 3 inches will fall this morning. Strong west to southwest winds are drifting this snow onto northerly and easterly aspects. The weak snowpack will not be able to handle even this new load. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely today. You will be able to remotely trigger slides from distances of 100 feet or greater and from flat areas. Some of these avalanches could be quite large. Avoid avalanche terrain today, or enjoy the powder in the safety of the ski area. Avalanche Danger The avalanche danger increases for the Vail-Summit zone to HIGH (Level 4) near and above treeline on slopes facing north through east to south. The danger in CONSIDERABLE (Level 3) on all other slopes. Snow & Avalanche Discussion Dangerous avalanche conditions exist across the Vail-Summitzone today. New snow amounts range from 6 to 10 inches overnight with another 1 to 3 inches expected today. This translates into three-quarters of a inch of water or greater that will load all slopes by late this morning. Combined with strong west and southwest winds, this has pushed the avalanche danger to HIGH on slopes facing north through east to southnear and above treeline. The largest avalanches will occur on these slopes, but smaller avalanches are likely on all other slopes. A recent fatality in the Aspen area makes the strong point that even small avalanches can be deadly. Be very attentive to terrain traps such as gullies, which allow even small amounts of snow to pile up deeply enough to bury and kill you. Since 1950, seven people have died in Colorado in avalanches that ran less than 70 ft. Several of these accidents occurred in dry years when we had a shallow and weak snowpack. The weak snowpack will not be able to handle this new load. Human and naturally triggered avalanches are very likely to day. You will able to trigger avalanches from remote distances and from low-angle or even flat terrain. You need to use extra caution near or below any slope approaching 30 degrees. A CAIC forecaster near Mayflow Gulch triggered an avalanche remotely yesterday on a 34 degree slope northeast facing slope near treeline. This illustrates just how touchy the snowpack is, and conditions in the Vail-Summit zone will only be more sensitive today. Weather Discussion for 11,000ft Issued: 01/22/2012 12:07 PM by Brian Lazar The cold front and low-pressure trough responsible for the snowfall overnight and this morning is moving east onto the plains. There is some lingering cloud cover and light snowfall over the mountain tops and along the Continental Divide, but this won't produce more than an inch or two of snow overnight. Winds will ease and back to the west and southwest as the low-pressure trough moves to our east. The exceptions will be along the Front Range and over the Continental Divide, which will see continued strong winds into tomorrow afternoon. The next system looks less and less impressive as it approaches Colorado. At this point it looks more like an upper level disturbance than a real storm. The most recent model runs show the system splitting around us sending most of the convective energy to our south. Most mountain areas will pick up an trace to two inches at best Monday and Monday night, with the south end of the San Juan Mountains doing a bit better than that. This pattern will continue into Tuesday before drying out for the middle of the week. Weather Forecast Fields Sunday Night Monday Monday Night Temperature (°F) 0 to 5 16 to 21 5 to 10 Wind Speed (mph) 15 to 25 15 to 25 5 to 15 Wind Direction W W WSW Sky Cover DecreasingDC Partly CloudyPC Mostly CloudyMC Snow (in) Tr to 1E 0 to 1 0 to 1