This is archived as a reference for a Snowmobiling fatality in the area on March 3. There is an
archived advisory for March 3 but it only contains an update made at 11pm mentioning the incident.
If there was more current information than this March 1 advisory available the morning of the
incident it is unavailable.

Moab Avalanche Advisory
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Created at 8:00 am
Forecaster: Max Forgensi
	
BOTTOM LINE

The Bottom Line for today for the mountains of southeast Utah will be an Avalanche Danger of 
Considerable on steep, wind loaded slopes at and above tree line on NW through East aspects. 
Persistent weak layers will be a concern for shady aspects at and below tree line as well.

The Avalanche Danger may rise to High by Friday as the next storm system affects the area. The 
trend is for decreasing stability. Recreating in or beneath avalanche terrain is not advised 
for the next 72 hours.

CURRENT CONDITIONS
	
The weather pattern is continuing to bring consistent snow storms to the mountains of southeast 
Utah. 7" (17 cm) of snow fell at the Gold Basin study plot Monday night, bringing the total amount 
of snow on the ground to 52" (130 cm). There is 35" at the Geyser Pass Winter trail head and 42" 
down at Camp Jackson in the Abajo Mountains. San Juan County plowed the roads to all the access 
points on Tuesday. 4WD is still recommended.

The winds have been relentless at and above tree line in both the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Strong 
winds out of the south - southwest for the past 24 hours with averages between 15-34 mph will be 
actively transporting and depositing snow onto leeward sides of slopes and ridges.

LUNA has not been able to groom the track since the last storm and may be able to groom after this 
next shot of snow. The best bet for winter recreation for the next couple of days will be low 
angled, wind sheltered meadows and glades.

RECENT ACTIVITY
	
There has been some activity lately to report in the La Sal Mountains. Natural avalanche activity 
occurred during last weekends wind event which produced climax avalanches to the ground. There 
were reports of some small human triggered avalanches below tree line on steep northerly facing 
glades. There are weaknesses out there and spring skiing conditions at least a couple weeks off.

THREAT #1
	
High relative humidity values and strong winds are transporting available snow and keeping it local. 
Expect sensitive wind slabs at and above tree line, in some places cross loaded, today and as the 
next storm progresses.

THREAT #2
	
OK folks, face it. We have a poor structure on shady aspects in the mountains of southeast Utah. 
There is no denying this fact. With more stress, these layers may become more reactive, especially 
in below tree line locations where snow depths are still on the shallow side and a humans weight 
can affect it.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER
	

@ 10,000' in La Sal Mountains, Utah Today: Snow showers. High near 27. Breezy, with a west northwest 
wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation 
of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -10. 
Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation 
of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday: Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 21. Wind chill values as low 
as -10. Blustery, with a north northwest wind around 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New 
snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 11pm. 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a 
high near 32. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.