Avalanche Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains Issued by Drew Hardesty for Saturday, February 6, 2021 Expired, Archived (Advertisement here, monetization for the Forest Service) Areas of HIGH DANGER exist this morning in steep upper elevation terrain. This danger is most pronounced on north through southeast facing slopes. A CONSIDERABLE danger exists at the mid-elevations and this is where we may see a few close calls today. Avalanches may be up to 5' deep and over several-hundred feet wide. Remember that avalanches can be triggered from a distance. The Good News: safe and surfy riding conditions can be found on low angle terrain of all aspects with no overhead hazard. The Bad News: If you're headed out of bounds at a ski area, you may be stepping into HIGH avalanche danger. Avalanche Danger High - above 9500' N -> SE Considerable all other terrain above 8000' Moderate below 8000' Weather and Snow Skies are mostly cloudy. Mountain temperatures are generally in the teens with single digits up high. The wind. 11,000' anemometers suffered a few gusts from the west-northwest over 100mph yesterday afternoon. They remain strong. With an additional 3-5" (0.27"-0.5") overnight, storm totals are now up to 10-15" (0.75-1.01") in the Cottonwoods and along the Park City ridgeline. Skiing and riding conditions are excellent and surfy on higher density graupel snow and wind whales across the landscape. For today, skies will trend partly cloudy with mountain temperatures rising to the low to mid-20s. Expect no mercy from the northwest winds; they're forecast to increase in speed this afternoon. The Outlook: With a high amplitude ridge to the West, we'll remain under a cool, breezy northwest flow through mid-week. Recent Avalanches Greg anticipated the danger spiking to high yesterday during high rates of snowfall and strong winds and this verified with a couple periods of natural avalanching in the high, steep terrain mid-canyon above Little Cottonwood, including areas of White Pine Chutes and the Y/Y-Not. Two notable avalanches stood out from the backcountry yesterday - Short Swing area of Mill D North: 9200' North facing unknown trigger estimated at 2' deep and roughly 125' wide Alexander Basin: a skier remotely triggered an estimated 2-3' deep avalanche possibly up to 500' wide low in the basin at 8600' north facing. It has been a very active week with nearly 40 natural and human-triggered avalanches reported to the UAC from the Salt Lake mountains. The actual number is likely much higher. This included two very-close calls as well as the second avalanche fatality of the season in the state. (Advertisement here, monetization for the Forest Service) Avalanche Problem #1 Persistent Weak Layer Above 8000 except S and SE Likely Medium to Large Description We may see a few avalanches to the ground. These may be explosive triggered, natural, or human triggered. The heavy snowfall and sustained winds may be too much for some of our northerly terrain with a creaky snowpack; particularly areas that have previously avalanched to near the ground this year. Any fresh wind slab or new snow avalanche may step down into this older layering of weak snow. Particularly dangerous areas would include Snake Creek, upper American Fork, upper Mill Creek and much of the Park City ridgeline. Avalanche Problem #2 Wind Drifted Snow Above 8000' All aspects Likely Small to Medium Description Strong winds will continue to move snow into wind drifts that may be increasingly stubborn and less reactive as the day wears on. The wind drift may be well off the ridgelines, cross-loaded across the landscape, and may release on not the first but perhaps second or third rider across the slope. Cracking and collapsing may or may not be evident.