Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains
Issued by Nikki Champion for Sunday, March 14, 2021
Archived - Expired!

As the strong March sun heats the cold snow surface, the avalanche danger will quickly rise to MODERATE on all steep southerly aspects. Pay attention to changing conditions - rollerballs are the first sign that the snow is becoming unstable.

Areas of MODERATE danger exist also at all upper elevations for triggering a fresh slab of wind drifted snow. These wind slabs will be generally shallow and isolated to terrain features that allow for drifting snow to accumulate. In cold wind-sheltered zones, the new snow could still lead to shallow soft slab avalanches or minor sluffing on the steepest slopes today.

Remember that even a small avalanche can be problematic in very steep and complicated terrain. Think about the terrain you are traveling above today.

Danger Rating: Moderate NW -> E below 9500', Low elsewhere

Weather and Snow

This morning, skies are overcast and a few final snowflakes may be falling. Mountain temperatures are in the mid-teens to low 20s F. The overnight winds have continued to increase and transitioned to north northwesterly. Currently, the winds are averaging 15-25 mph, with gusts above 50 mph at upper elevations.

Today, we could get a final 1-2 inches of new snow before the snow showers clear out this morning and high pressure begins to build over the area. Winds will continue to increase into the afternoon and temperatures should warm into the mid-20s F and low 30s F. The wind speeds will average 20-30 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph at upper elevations.

Total snow amounts have reached somewhere between 11-26" since Wednesday, favoring the Park City Ridgeline. Overall, riding conditions have improved greatly. You will find the best riding on aspects that have not been impacted by any solar, and therefore will not hold the firm riding surface from Wednesday afternoon.

Recent Avalanches
Yesterday was relatively quiet in the backcountry, with only reports of sluffing within the new snow. One user caught the tail end of some new snow moving in Coalpit #4.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Location W -> SE
Likelihood: Unlikely to Likely
Size Small to Medium
Description
Late this morning the weather should begin to break, and high pressure will build. This could lead to some broken skies, occasional sunshine, and warm temperatures. With so much cold new snow, and how strong the sun is this time of year, as soon as the sun comes out the snow surface will become instantly wet. As the day heats up, wet avalanches of loose snow will become possible.
Pay attention to the snow surface becoming wet, then look for small point releases, balls of snow rolling downhill and growing in size and occurring more frequently. Seeing these clues will tell you that loose wet avalanches may start happening. They tend to happen more near exposed rocks that absorb heat from the sun and help warm the snow faster.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Location Above 8000', all aspects
Likelihood: Unlikely to Likely
Size Small to Medium
Description
This morning the winds are gusting above 50 mph. Since yesterday, the winds have only continued to increase and will continue increasing throughout the day. The new snow combined with increasing winds should create some slabs of wind drifted snow at all upper elevations, and some mid-elevation terrain features such as sub-ridges and gullies. These wind slabs will be shallow and overall small in size, but these new wind drifts are sitting atop of a firm snow surface which will make them very sensitive and cause them to run far and fast. Even a small avalanche would be enough to knock a person off their feet and through complex terrain.
Look for any slopes with signs of wind drifted snow, and avoid those slopes. Wind-affected snow often looks wavy, rounded, pillowy, and can sound hollow when walking or riding on it.
In area's protected from the wind and the sun, the new snow could still lead to shallow soft slab avalanches or minor sluffing on the steepest slopes today.