This is an archived product due to a fatality on this day. Backcountry Avalanche Forecast East Slopes North Issued: Thursday, February 27, 2025 - 6:08PM Expires: Friday, February 28, 2025 - 6:00PM Author: Katie Warren THE BOTTOM LINE While the likelihood of avalanches is slightly lower, the complex, overlapping problems will require conservative terrain selection. Avoid steep, northern terrain where deep, widely propagating avalanches are possible. If the snow is wet, move to lower-angle terrain, and avoid lingering beneath cornices or rocks that should shed slabs of snow. Avalanche Danger Friday, February 28, 2025 All Elevations and Aspects: 2 - Moderate Avalanche Problems (3) Problem #1: Wet Loose Aspect/Elevation E-S-W All Elevations, NW-NE below 5000 ft Likelihood: Likely Size: Small (D1) to Large (D2) Temperatures will be even warmer on Friday. Surface crusts will be more robust, but you could still trigger wet avalanches as they break down in the sun. Wet avalanches on shady terrain may also be possible with even warmer temperatures. We expect most avalanches will be small, but some larger avalanches are possible as temperatures warm slopes further around the compass. Move to lower-angle terrain if you feel the surface snow becoming wet, heavy, or sticking to your equipment. Wet avalanches may run naturally from trees or rocks shedding snow above you, so be aware of overhead terrain. Consider finding shady terrain for recreation in dry snow with a lower likelihood of avalanches. Cornices may be likely to fail in the warming temperatures. While these are a hazard on their own, they could trigger a wind slab on the slope below. A rogue glide or wet slab avalanche off steep rocky terrain or grassy slopes is also a consideration. Avoid lingering underneath glide cracks, cliffs, or overhung cornices. Problem #2: Persistent Slab Aspect/Elevation: W-N-E 5000-8000 ft Likelihood: Possible Size: Large (D2) to Very Large (D3) On Wednesday (2/26), a snowmobiler was caught, carried, and buried in a remotely triggered persistent slab avalanche. Thankfully, they were uninjured. Tread carefully and put a large buffer between where you travel and large steep open slopes on northerly aspects. Even as these avalanches become less likely to trigger, warming temperatures will keep them reactive in some areas, and you could trigger one from low angle terrain below a steep slope. This avalanche problem is tricky because even though they become harder to trigger, they are no less deadly. Smaller avalanches in the recent snow can also initiate an avalanche on deeper weak layers. With the January Drought Layer (JDL) nearly 3ft deep now, you may not receive warning signs of whumpfs or collapses in flatter terrain. Avalanches may run full path into flat terrain below. The only way to manage these problems is avoidance. Make conservative route selections and avoid overhead exposure from cornice failures and steep, northerly terrain. Over the past 48 hours, there have been multiple widely propagating avalanches. Most of these avalanches occurred in steep, rocky terrain or below cliffbands. On Wednesday, a snowmobiler remotely triggered a persistent slab near Harts Pass and was caught, carried, and buried. Thankfully, they were rescued and are okay. Problem #3: Wind Slab Aspect/Elevation: All aspects, 6500-8000 ft Likelihood: Possible Size: Small (D1) to Large (D2) Recent winds formed wind slabs on lee slopes at mid and upper elevations. These slabs are likely gaining strength, but you could still trigger one in steep, unsupported terrain or confined rocky features. Triggering a smaller wind slab avalanche could initiate a much larger avalanche on older, weak snow. Avalanches on these deeper layers may be more likely from large triggers such as cornice falls. Forecast Discussion As we continue this spring-like weather, expect variability and aspect-dependent surface conditions. You'll likely find breakable crusts of varying thickness on west, south, and east aspects and dry snow on northern slopes at upper elevations. We expect that with warmer temperatures, surface crusts will break down quickly. Plan your day so you can move off of and out from under steep sunny terrain by early afternoon. Professionals reported several very large persistent slab avalanches throughout the terrain on Wednesday and Thursday. Observers near the avalanche incident on Hart's Pass (see above description in the Persistent Slab Problem) also reported other widely propagating avalanches in steep, rocky terrain. These avalanches likely failed on the January Drought Layer (JDL), now 2-3' below the surface. Earlier this week, travelers near Cutthroat Creek and Silverstar felt several collapses. We have been concerned about these types of avalanches for the better part of February. But, it wasn't until the recent warm snowfall formed a more substantial slab over the JDL that we began to see increased reactivity. But now that we have a cohesive slab, this problem might not heal quickly. So, patience and conservative decisions to avoid steep, northerly terrain are essential to avoid triggering one of these massive avalanches. Heavy, dense snow layering over weak faceted snow in the foothills near the Methow Valley led to reports of whumfping and small avalanches the last 2 days. We expect the prolonged warm temperatures will eventually help strengthen this weak snowpack structure, but this problem should still be on your radar until we get a solid cold night with a good re-freeze of the snowpack.