Chugach Avalanche Center
Turnagain Pass
ARCHIVED Forecast - in relation to a fatality on this day

Issued: Fri, March 22nd, 2024 - 7:00AM
Expires: Sat, March 23rd, 2024 - 7:00AM
Forecaster: John Sykes

The Bottom Line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations today. Fresh wind slabs 6-12" deep that formed overnight are likely for human triggering at upper elevations along ridgelines. Triggering a larger avalanche on a buried weak layer 2-3' deep remains possible, and is most likely in the afternoon when warm temperatures and sun weaken the snow surface. If the sun makes a surprise appearance today, wet snow avalanches on solar aspects are possible in the afternoon.

Recent Avalanches

A few new wet avalanches were observed yesterday, including the first wet slabs of the season being observed in the Summit Pass area. There was also a new debris pile observed from a distance in the Crow Creek area near Goat Shoulder, but we have no information other than seeing the fresh debris.

Avalanche Problem 1
Wind Slabs
All aspects above treeline
Likelihood: Likely
Size: Large (D2) to Small (D1)

Winds pickup up overnight and were averaging 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph out of the east for about 9 hours. Despite the melt freeze crusts on the surface at lower elevations, it is likely that the winds found some snow to move around at the upper elevations and formed fresh wind slabs 6-12" deep. These will be most likely for a person to trigger on high elevation northern aspects where there is most likely to be soft, dry snow available for the wind to transport. To identify areas harboring wind slabs keep an eye out for active wind loading, hollow feeling snow on the surface near ridgelines or gully features, and use small test slopes to check for shooting cracks or small avalanches.

Wet snow avalanches are less likely today because we are expecting cloudy conditions. However, forecasting cloud cover is very tricky and it is possible that the sun could have more impact than we are expecting. Keep an eye out for how much the sun is impacting the snow surface today especially on southern aspects. Depending on the cloud cover overnight the melt freeze crust on the surface may not have refrozen as deeply as yesterday, which means conditions could soften up earlier in the day and start to cause wet loose avalanches if the sun comes out. If you find that you are sinking in below ankle depth on slopes being melted by the sun it is time to move to a shadier aspect to avoid the potential for wet avalanches. The weakening crust will also make triggering a larger avalanche on a buried weak layer more likely (see problem 2).

Finally, cornices are in prime condition to start shedding off the ridgelines right now. Try to avoid spending time underneath cornices that are being heated up by the sun. They can fail randomly and have to potential to trigger avalanches on the slope below.

Avalanche Problem 2
Persistent Slabs
All aspects, at and above treeline
Liklihood: Possible
Size: Very Large (D3) to Large (D2)

The buried persistent weak layers that caused a bunch of human triggered avalanches last week are still lingering in the snowpack and seem to still have the potential to cause large avalanches. There are two concerning weak layers buried about 2-3' deep in the snopwack, one is buried surface hoar and the other is a layer of facets. We got unstable test results in our snowpits on Sunburst and Magnum on both these layers yesterday, which is a sign that they need more time to gain strength. Since these weak layers are within the upper 3' of the snowpack it is possible for the weight of a person to trigger an avalanche on these weak layers, especially in the afternoon when the melt freeze crust on the surface has softened and taken away some of the strength of the surface snow.

The best way to manage this type of avalanche problem is to stick to lower angle terrain to avoid the potential to trigger a large avalanche. Digging snowpits and using stability tests like a compression test or an extended column test are good ways to identify and assess the weak layers, but we don’t recommend over relying on snowpit information in your decision-making because it is common to get false stable or inconsistent stability test results.


This is a general backcountry avalanche advisory issued for Turnagain Arm with Turnagain Pass as the core advisory area. This advisory does not apply to highways, railroads or operating ski areas.

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